Manhattan Market Report, October 28, 2022

Manhattan Market Report for the week ending October 28th is anemic as we move into the new month.  Supply and Pending Sales are both down slightly.   Supply closed out at 7,765 and Pending Sales 2,678, maintaining the market pulse in buyer leverage territory at.35%

As we began the month of November, Stocks tumbled as trading commenced. Traders also assessed better-than-expected economic data and what it spells for Federal Reserve policy in the future.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 91 points or 0.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.  All the major averages opened higher but turned “negative” after job openings data for September showed a resilient labor market. Rates eased off their lows following the report, with the yield on 10-year last trading two basis points lower at 4.059%.

 

Market Pulse

The market pulse measuring the ratio of supply and demand seems to be evidencing the beginning of the buy-side leverage peaking.  Continue to look for a  “hockey stick” formation before the curve heads upward.  The weekly supply is down and stands at 333. The weekly contract signed is down too and stands at “167”.  Some sellers capitulate and reduce list prices, but many choose to rent their property or remove the listing from the market altogether.  Off-Market Inventory for this week is at 200. 

 

Freddie Mac Rates

 

News Facts

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke seven percent for the first time since April 2002, leading to greater stagnation in the housing market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As inflation endures, consumers are seeing higher costs at every turn, causing further declines in consumer confidence this month. Many potential homebuyers are waiting to see where the housing market will end up, pushing demand and home prices further downward.”

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.08 percent, with an average of 0.8 points as of October 27, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 6.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.14 percent.
• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.36 percent with an average of 1.4 points, up from last week when it averaged 6.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.37 percent.
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 5.96 percent with an average of 0.3 points, up from last week when it averaged 5.71 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.56 percent.

 

Sponsor Sales

“October ended on a high note with a jump in contracts after three pretty consistent weeks.”

– Kael Goodman, co-founder, and CEO

New dev condo sales jumped 56% last week, with 53 deals reported city-wide and a major spike in Brooklyn. Forty developments reported contracts totaling $109,150,431. The average asking price decreased to $2,059,442 (-36%) and average PPSF also decreased to $1,612 (-17%).

Nine deals were on units asking above $4M, up from 7 previously. The average asking price for a luxury unit was down nearly 40% to $5,361,611.

Manhattan reported 21 contracts (+5%), Brooklyn had 28 (+180%), Queens had 4 (no change)

Manhattan reports 21 contracts totaling $69M across 15 buildings, with the average unit asking $3,285,642 (-21.4%) and $2,073 PSF (-11.4%).

• 100 Vandam in Soho reported three contracts for 1-beds ranging from $1.7-$1.8M.
• The Hayworth. Both deals at the Zeckendorf condo were for 3-bed units asking $4M and $2.9M.
• The Solaire reported a 2-bed asking $2.5M and a 1-bed asking $1.2M.
• One Manhattan Square and 35 Hudson Yards were Habitual top performers and had two deals.

 

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